Vietnam's success against avian flu may offer blueprint for others

Vietnam has succeeded in pretty much holding back Avian Flu, especially in comparison to Indonesia, where the disease is regarded as endemic (established) in its poultry.

After responding to its 2004 outbreaks mainly by culling infected flocks, Vietnam in 2005:

1. became the first country to institute mandatory nationwide poultry vaccination.
2. banned poultry rearing and live-market sales in urban areas;
   
3. restricted commercial raising of ducks and quail, which can harbor the virus asymptomatically;
   
4. imposed strict controls on poultry transport within Vietnam
   
5. clamped down on illegal cross-border trade
   
6. launched an aggressive public education campaign that deployed radio and TV advertising, neighborhood loudspeaker announcements, and outreach by powerful internal groups such as the Women's Union and Farmers' Union.

Nice work, no? No, not according to Dr. David Dennis, the Hanoi-based Vietnam influenza coordinator for the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who whines "How much [of the reduction in cases] is due to the natural history of this organism in birds? We don’t know."

Oh dear oh dear. How backward and unscientific these Vietnamese are. How inconvenient of them to fail to do things one at a time, half heartedly, and ineffectively, all in the name of "science".

Ballcocks! Dr Dennis - and, sadly the WHO, who also have refused to learn from the Vietnam success - has his priorities all wrong. This is medicine we are doing here, which is the technology associated with medical science. Science can tag along and learn from the success, but all credit to the Vietnamese who have succeeded where Indonesia and other countries have so signally failed.

If people want to be scientific, let them repeat the Vietnam experiment in Indonesia (or, assuming that that country refused to play ball, some other more cooperative country), and leave out just one element - like the public education, or the market ban, and see if that works. Or, better still, let us forget the knowledge and go for the cure, and just do what worked in Vietnam, and let the anal retentive scientists go hang about by their empty viral specimen jars.

Of course, this aversion to learning from the Vietnamese could have nothing to do with what happened in April 1975. American defeat, ignominious exit, helicopters, Saigon.

Could it?

H5N1 Hungary DEFRA Question

Hungary had mute swans die of H5N1 in April 2006, then outbreaks on several goose farms in June 2006, then an outbreak on a goose farm in January 24^th 2007.

Bernard Matthews’ Hungarian turkey factory is outside the exclusion zone round the latter goose farm, in fact 150 miles away.

Assuming that it is the same strain of H5N1, it follows that

EITHER the exclusion zones are not wide enough

OR turkeys were illegally smuggled out of the exclusion zone and sold on as coming from Matthews’ factory.

Question 1 for DEFRA: Which is the case?

Question 2 for DEFRA is – have all imports to the UK (and other EU countries) from Hungary now ceased?

Why Import Birds from Infected Hungary?

So it turns out that Bernard M was shifting carcasses from Hungary to Suffolk. Next question: given that there was an outbreak in Hungary, why did DEFRA not ban imports from that country? Or did Bernie flout a ban?

Avian flu: pointed questions.

It is most important to trace the source of the present outbreak of H5N1 Avian in Suffolk, in order to learn lessons that can help us to close that type of infection pathway. It is not good enough to say, as they are,"We may never know", and "Matthews tell us the eggs are not from Hungary".

Here are some lines of inquiry for some intrepid investigative journalist or researcher to follow up:

Do the DEFRA investigating teams have all the resources they need?

In the investigation, is enough attention being given to the possibility that the infection pathway could be the import of eggs already infected with H5N1?

Is it indeed the case (as reported) that the Holton (Suffolk) strain is similar to a Hungarian strain? How closely are they related?

Is it the case, as has been reported, that Matthews' Hungarian factory had an outbreak earlier this year?

Clearly there needs to be a stringent investigation of the provenance of all eggs brought into the Holton factory. The investigation must go beyond simple examination of the firm's records.

Without prejudicing any person or persons actually involved, it can be said that it is not unknown for records to be altered, particularly in circumstances of this type.

Smuggling is prevalent in the poultry business. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/15/world/europe/15bird.html?ex=1302753600&en=bc2640e1464f857a&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Eggs are presumably worth more in the UK than they are in Hungary.

It is possible that eggs bought in good faith as UK provenance might be foreign in origin.

Let us hope that DEFRA will follow these lines of inquiry. Let us hope that they have hearned from the 2001 foot & mouth outbreak. Let us hope. Or pray...

Sick Bird Flew from Hungary?

The strain of H5N1 in Suffolk is the same as those in Hungary, and Bernard Matthews owns factories in Hungary.

While it not absolutely impossible that a small bird caught H5N1 in Hungary and flew against the wind all the way to Bernard Matthews' turkey factory in Suffolk and squeezed its way down an air vent in order to cough over his unsuspecting turkeys, it is rather more likely that the virus came over in infected eggs.

It is almost enough to make one consider banning cross border transportation of eggs, were it not for the fact that would be an example of unacceptable political meddling with the workings of the free market.

Evidence That Email Lists Cause Brain Damage Shock

I am beginning to realise that the research that found that reading emails disrupts ratonal thought as badly as smoking dope, and does it without the concomitant euphoria and relaxation, is correct.

I belong to various email lists, among them the policy community of a well known, if sorely marginalised political group. Here is a recent exchange, copied as it occurred, but slightly edited for clarity, and names have been changed to protect the innocent:


A All public services should have a suggestion box mechanism, with the proposer of successful reforms to receive a percentage of the savings made. Are there any objections to putting that in the new policy?

B I think the suggestion box is an excellent idea - desirable not just in
the civil service but many other large organisations.

C Do they take a cut in salary if they suggest something which proves unsuccessful?

D Like whoever suggested privatisation

E I would not support this at all – so yes I do object

F (leader of the group in all but name) yes, ditto me…lunacy.

So there we have it. Reasoning, a la e-mail list. So do I bale out, leaving them to influence policy unimpeded, or do I stay in, and keep trying? Difficult. Think I will go and do something real instead, like chopping logs.