tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9192922.post3047717052584552699..comments2024-03-26T07:51:43.186+00:00Comments on Mabinogogiblog: Model-free Climate Sensitivity is still dangerousDocRichardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08903964792092284406noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9192922.post-79032243293922311282012-11-23T00:31:36.229+00:002012-11-23T00:31:36.229+00:00>"To summarise, any increase of temperatur...>"To summarise, any increase of temperature over 2*C is regarded as dangerous, which is why the contrarians have made many efforts to prove that sensitivity is below 2*C. "<br /><br />That is badly confused about climate sensitivity. Sensitivity is the temperature response to a doubling of CO2 if nothing else changes. We have only increased CO2 by 40% so far and it is hard to avoid other things changing. So sensitivity is not a temperature prediction nor easily observed from looking at climate.<br /><br />I think it is important to note the effect of using multiple constraints on climate sensitivity. All our knowledge provides tighter constraint that just using one line of evidence.<br />see<br />http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d5/jdannan/GRL_sensitivity.pdf<br />or<br />http://julesandjames.blogspot.co.uk/2006/03/climate-sensitivity-is-3c.html<br /><br />Also the prior that is used in Bayesian analysis seems important to the upper bound but doesn't much matter to the lower bound - the data quickly rules out values below 1.5 pretty quickly however high a probability you give it before using some data.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.com