tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9192922.post6439072909251718323..comments2024-03-26T07:51:43.186+00:00Comments on Mabinogogiblog: Will the Ice Age Cycle stop Global Warming?DocRichardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08903964792092284406noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9192922.post-44385752424209705532013-03-01T15:25:20.021+00:002013-03-01T15:25:20.021+00:00Well, while we wait for Max to find his source, le...Well, while we wait for Max to find his source, let us look at his assertion in the round. The problem with asserting that we have used up x% or total resources is that we have no real idea of what total carbon resources are. <br /><br />Resources and reserves are highly complex: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mineral_resource_classification<br /><br />A simpler way at getting an overview is through comparing the time spent in storing carbon to time spent in releasing ditto.<br /><br />If we assume that the most part atmospheric CO2 was stored in the Carboniferous period, that lasted 60,000,000 years. If we have indeed used up 15% of that Carbon, this means that in 150 years we have released 9 million years worth of stored carbon. Which means that we are releasing 60,000 years of stored carbon each year, as I make it.<br /><br />Now, to me, that seems an awful disparity. Not a problem of course to someone who thinks that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas, but I do not think Max is among that group.<br /><br />In the end, I see no point in discussing what happens if we return to pre-carboniferous times, in terms of atmospheric physics. It is more relevant to discuss where we stand right now in 2013, having increased the CO2 levels by 41%, having raised planetary temperatures by 0.7C. We should also take a long serious look at the changes we are already seeing in terms of weather. http://greenerblog.blogspot.com/2013/01/are-extreme-weather-events-increasing.html<br /><br /> DocRichardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08903964792092284406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9192922.post-63889665080943150092013-02-24T19:48:08.472+00:002013-02-24T19:48:08.472+00:00OK Max, let's take this carefully and systemat...OK Max, let's take this carefully and systematically, starting with your assertion that 85% of fossil fuel reserves remain. By WEC 2012 I take it you mean the World Energy Council survey of resources 2010? http://www.worldenergy.org/documents/ser_2010_report_1.pdf<br /><br />If so I cannot find the reference on that document. Please give a source for this assertion.DocRichardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08903964792092284406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9192922.post-58114006497973971382013-02-22T00:43:19.043+00:002013-02-22T00:43:19.043+00:00docrihard
The absolute asymptotic maximum GH warm...docrihard<br /><br />The absolute asymptotic maximum GH warming from human fossil fuel combustion (when these are all 100% used up) is 2.0C<br /><br />This might happen some day in the far distant future (say in 200 years at the earliest).<br /><br />This does not seem to warrant any action such as you are proposing.<br /><br />Maxmanackernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9192922.post-56449308020313274082013-02-22T00:27:44.475+00:002013-02-22T00:27:44.475+00:00docrichard
In your brief estimate "Will the ...docrichard<br /><br />In your brief estimate "Will the Ice Age Stop Global Warming?", you add a concluding remark:<br /><br /><i>it is so simple, I cannot see what I may have missed.</i><br /><br />Let me suggest that you may have "missed" the following:<br />- the upper atmospheric CO2 limit from human fossil fuel consumption is around 980 ppmv as constrained by fossil fuel availability per optimistic WEC 2010 estimates of remaining fossil fuels on our planet in 2008 (85% of all fossil fuels that were ever on our planet were still in place and recoverable).<br /><br />The first 15% got us from 280 ppmv (estimated in 1750) to 385 ppmv (Mauna Loa in 2008), so the remaining 85% could get us to an absolute maximum CO2 level of:<br /><br />385 + 0.85*(385-280) / 0.15 = 980 ppmv<br /><br />You state that at a low estimate of 2xCO2 climate sensitivity of 1.2C, we could have had a 1.2C rise from 1750 to 2050 (CO2 increase from en estimated 280 ppmv in 1750 to a guessed 580 ppmv by 2050 or 0.04C per decade.<br /><br />At the latest, somewhat higher 2xCO2 CS estimates of around 1.5C, this would be 0.05C average warming from CO2 since 1750.<br /><br />Let’s say 1.5C warming from 1750 to 2050.<br /><br />But 1750 was a long time ago and the 0.7C GH warming we have already seen since then has been no problem at all, so let’s start with today rather than with 1750.<br /><br />And let’s forget your rather arbitrary “guess-timate” of 580 ppmv CO2 by 2050 and instead look at the absolute maximum GH warming from human fossil fuel combustion, or an atmospheric CO2 level of 980 ppmv. That’s it, doc – there is no more (and we surely will not reach this level anytime within the next 200 years).<br /><br />So from 2013 to 2213 we would theoretically have seen GH warming from human fossil fuel combustion of:<br /><br />1.5 * ln(980/393) / ln(2) = 2.0C<br /><br />That’s it. Fossil fuels are all gone by then (if this ever truly occurs in real life).<br /><br />So the question to be answered is:<br /><br /><i>”Will the Ice Age Stop Global Warming over the next 200 years or so?”</i><br /><br />The answer to this question appears to be “NO”, based on your estimate of Ice Age cooling of 0.017C per decade (over 5,000 years).<br /><br />BUT, since the CO2 warming has an absolute limit of 2.0C and the Ice Age cooling is 500*0.017 or 8.5C, it means that Global Warming will only temporarily stop an Ice Age (if one is coming), as limited by total fossil fuels still available.<br /><br />So the answer to<br /><i>Will the Ice Age Eventually Stop Global Warming?</i> is<br /><br />“YES”<br /><br />Max<br />manackernoreply@blogger.com