Monday, May 13, 2013

What do both sides of the climate debate agree on?

Just posted this on the New York Times website. Will link later

There is now a  figure - 2C (3.6F) - that is agreed between the mainstream climatologists and the contrarians.  Such an increase is within the bounds of reasonable probability by both groups as a result of doubling CO2. Contrarians think it is the highest likely temperature rise, climatologists think it is on the low side. No matter - there is an agreed figure. 

At present we are about 0.7C (1.2F) higher than we should be. The Arctic ice is melting, the jet stream is changing, and we are getting extreme weather events. It is likely that these events are connected. If the present weather changes are a sign of  what we get at 0.7C, contrarians are going to have their difficulty in convincing reasonable people that 2C is something that we do not  need to try to avoid.

No comments: