Causes and prevention of current wars

This blog has been looking at the wars currently burning in the world, as a series. 

Here the posts are laid out in order

War as a form of political psychosis

Reducing the number of dictatorships

Curbing small wars by curbing ammunition

Secessionism as a cause of war

Interventionism as a cause of war

Crime as a cause of war

Ideology as a cause of war

Poverty and repression 

Herder/farmer clashes

Religion as a factor in the cause of war

The part played by resources in current wars

Here are eleven of the headline factors that lead to current wars:

Religion           9

Dictators          8

Ethnic  7

Militias    6

Foreign Intervention 6

Secessionism  5

Crime/Drugs  5

Ideology          2 

Herder/Farmer  2

Resources  2

Poverty/repression  2

There are general factors, such as oil, greed, arms industry profits, ignorance, short-sightedness and worse  on the part of political leaders, but the above list is of factors that are susceptible to prevention by policy changes.

Here is a list of the current wars, adapted from Wikipedia (as at 3 Sept 2024)

WARS IN 2024

The aim here is to look at the causes of wars and conflicts going on at the present time, and to add the year the trouble started, the total number of deaths estimated, and the headline causes of the conflict.

MAJOR WARS

Major wars are defined as conflicts causing more than 10,000 deaths in the current year or previous year. 

There are five major wars taking place at the moment:

Israel/Palestine,  (began 1948, cumulative deaths 240K)

Russian invasion of Ukraine   (began 2014, cumulative deaths 100-250K)

Mexican drug war                   (began 2006, Cumulative deaths 127-400K)

Sudanese civil war  (began 2023, cumulative deaths 100-150K)

Maghreb Insurgency  (began 2002, cumulative deaths 70K)

Myanmar conflicts  (began 1948, cumulative deaths 28-189K)

The causes of any war are always multifactorial and difficult to analyse down to the last detail, but it is possible to grasp the most prominent factors in any war, and it is these factors that we are trying to capture here. 

Israel Palestine

Religion

Separatism

Foreign Interference (support for Israel from the USA, to Hamas from Iran)

Ethnic

Dictators (Netanyahu and Hamas leadership)

Ukraine

Dictator (Putin)

Ideology (conflict between alignment with Russia or the EU)

Separatism

Mexican Drug War

        War on Drugs

        Crime

        Foreign Intervention (USA)

Sudanese Civil war

Causes

Highly Complex

Background
Dictator Omar al-Bashir, head of Islamic National Congress Party.

Coup 2019 > Military rule > Transitional Sovereignty Council > Coup 2019 >  >Popular Resistance > civil war 

Genocide in Darfur against ethnic groups (12 tribes, tension between farmers and nomadic herders)

At present (since 2023) war between General al-Burhan and Janjaweed leader  Hermedti

Summary of Causes of Sudan War

Dictatorship (Rebellion against)

Ethnic

Maghreb

Cause

Religion: Islamic State

Myanmar

Causes 

Highly complex. 

Ethnic

Military Dictatorship

WARS

Defined as 1,000 - 9,999 deaths in past year

Ethiopia

Since 2018

600k

Ethnic

Separatism

Syrian Civil war

2011

600k

Dictatorship

Religion - Islamic State

Foreign intervention

Armed factions (militias)

Sudanese nomadic conflicts

2008

400k

Ethnic

Resources

Yemen

2014

380k

Religious (Sunni-Shia)

Foreign Intervention (Iran-Saudi proxy)

Boko Haram

2009

373k

Religion - Islamic insurgency 

Began against Nigeria, now spread to Cameroon, Chad, Niger

Somali Civil war

1991

1,000K

Dictator

Religion al-Shabab (AQ)

Iraqi Conflict 

2003

1215K

Dictator

US intervention

Religion (Sunni-Shia) & ISIS

Afghan Conflict

1978

2,600k

Religion (Taliban)

Separatism

Foreign intervention

Kivu (East Uganda)

2004

104k

Multiple gangs, remains of Rwanda and Congo wars

Resources

Rio Favelas 

2006

14k

Poverty, drug crime, repressive and corrupt policing, militias

Haiti gang war

2020

5.5k

Gangs, crime

Anglophone crisis Cameroon Nigeria

2017

7K

Separatist (Anglophone)

Columbian crisis

1964

455k

Left-Right (Ideology) 

Right: Crime gangs, Left FARC, 

North West Pakistan war

2004

61k

Religion (A-Q) 

Ethnic  (tribal). 

Militia (Low level insurgency)

Nigeria

1998

98k

Religion

Herder-farmer

Ethnic

There are another 19 minor wars with deaths of 100-999 in the previous year, and another 18 skirmishes