The previous post looked at war as if it were a political psychosis, a breakdown of normal behaviour. In clinical psychology, we work at identifying the beginnings of the process of the explosion of political anger that leads to war, so, applying this to war, we will now look at the simple, major causes of all the wars that are currently burning across the world in 2024. All wars have multiple complex causes that contribute to the specific individual outbreak, but here we are interested only in the most important factors.
First, the good news. Surprisingly, wars are on a downward trend. Figure 1 shows an overview of wars since World War 2. We find a clear downward trend in war deaths until the dictator Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Figure I Source: https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace
Appendix 1 lists these major wars (defined as more than 10,000 deaths per year) and less intensive wars, (with deaths of between 1,000 and 9,999 per year), their duration, their estimated death toll, and their salient causes.
In summary, we find, roughly, that the primary causes of ongoing wars are as follows:
Religion 10
Dictators 7
Ethnic 7
Militias 6
Foreign Intervention 5
Separatism 5
Crime/Drugs 4
Ideology 2
Herder/Farmer 2
Resources 2
Poverty/repression 2
I will not start with religion because it is a bit of a minefield, so we will put it on the back burner and start with wars started by dictators or by the chaos arising from the overthrow of the dictator.
Putin is the outstanding example of a dictator ordering an invasion. Assad in Syria is another example of a dictator presiding over a civil war that is a direct result of an attempt to get rid of him. In Burma, the military junta has been in power for most of the time since independence in 1948, and has presided over a constant violent struggle against several ethnic insurgencies. Netanyahu and the Hamas leadership occupy a grey area as elected dictators on whom their subjects have little or no influence, and who behave with the absence of human feeling that dictators commonly display.
The conflicts in Sudan, Somalia and Iraq illustrate what happens when dictators are removed suddenly and violently. Dictatorship represses all the aspirations to have a degree of power and influence over their state of diverse groups within society . On its removal, disorder tends to break out, as groups scramble to maximise their gains in their new-found freedoms. It is like suddenly taking the lid off a pressure cooker, instead of allowing it to cool slowly.
Dictatorships have been increasing over the last 15 years or so, and liberal democracies have been decreasing slightly (see Fig 2) as the pendulum of global politics swings towards the right,
with people like Putin in Russia, Trump in the USA, Johnson, Truss and Farage in the UK, Abbott in Australia, Le Pen in France, Netanyahu in Israel, Erdogan in Turkey, Duterte in the Philippines and several other right-wingers in or near to power.
So what can the international community do to inhibit the formation of dictatorships and to facilitate the peaceful transition towards democracy? The Green Party of England and Wales has a powerful policy called the Global Human Rights Index (GLOHRI). The United Nations already has an Index of Human Rights that provides and regularly updates a written account of the performance of each state. GLOHRI would express these accounts to a numerical score in a process that is already rolled out by more than one academic institution. One example can be found on this page in Our World in Data (scroll down to Human Rights, then click Table at the top right of the map).
Here is a brief summary of the GLOHRI process as it appears in the Green Party’s Policies for a Sustainable Society:
The Green Party will press for the use of a United Nations Index of Human Rights to monitor governments that commit human rights abuses and to provide an explicit basis for seeking to restrain such regimes.
IP333 All governments will have their human rights record continuously assessed by a UN agency set up for that purpose. A scale will be established measuring several indicators of human rights performance. The scale will be finalised by agreement at the UN level, but will be centred on the following abuses:
- use of torture
- use of death penalty
- scale of ‘disappearances’
- abuse of political prisoners
- denial of right to fair trial
- denial of free speech
- denial of free movement
- denial of right to political or religious freedom
- denial of rights to women
- denial of child rights
- denial of minority rights
- denial of rights to lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans and intersex people
A score reflecting their performance will be allocated to each state on an annual basis.
IP334 Once the Index is installed, governments with the worst record of human rights as measured on this Index will be referred to the International Court of Justice or the International Criminal Court. If the Court finds that their human rights performance falls below accepted legal standards, the regimes will be given time and assistance to improve their record. In the event of non-compliance, the matter will return to the Court, and if found at fault, the regime will suffer penalties in terms of its members’ privileges in the fields of finance, diplomacy, transport and trade. The severity of the penalties will increase as their human rights performance deteriorates, and decrease as their human rights performance improves. The penalties will be targeted to hurt the ruling elite rather than the general population.
IP335 At the same time, countries lying just above the level at which legal action will be taken will be offered help and advice to improve their human rights performance.
The effect of publishing this measurement of the human rights performance of each state annually by the UN will be to make the relative position of each state obvious at a glance. Politicians will be unable to dissemble and obfuscate their position. Many will undoubtedly complain that their position is too low, and in response the UN can send rapporteurs to re-examine their assessment, beginning with the number of political prisoners in the country’s jails. This in itself will almost certainly lead to the freeing of many political prisoners.
GLOHRI will exert a continuous, steady uplift in the HR performance of many countries.
The UN can constructively advise any regimes that ask for help to increase the levels of human rights, freedom and democracy.
Human rights need not be the only set of criteria in looking at states' governance. Democracy itself can be marked up in the assessment process.
While the UN is working from outside, people within repressive states can be encouraged to work for democracy by quietly and patiently collaborating in drawing up plans for the institutions that will belong to their democratic state.
Here is a list of needful work prepared by the artificial Intelligence programme, ChatGTP:
How can we faclitate the transition from dictatorship to democracy?
Facilitating the transition from dictatorship to democracy is a complex and sensitive process that requires careful planning, inclusive participation, and international support. Here are some key strategies that can help facilitate this transition:
1. Inclusive Political Dialogue
- Broad Participation : Engage a wide range of stakeholders, including political parties, civil society, ethnic and religious groups, and marginalized communities. This helps ensure that the transition reflects the interests of all segments of society.
- National Dialogue : Organize a national dialogue to discuss the future of the country. This platform can be used to address grievances, build consensus, and establish a shared vision for the new democratic state.
2. Constitutional and Legal Reforms
- Draft a New Constitution : Develop a new or revised constitution that guarantees fundamental rights, separation of powers, and the rule of law. This document should be created through a transparent and participatory process.
- Strengthen Legal Frameworks : Reform laws to protect human rights, ensure free and fair elections, and dismantle repressive structures from the previous regime.
3. Free and Fair Elections
- Independent Electoral Commission : Establish an independent body to oversee elections, ensuring they are free from fraud, coercion, or manipulation.
- Electoral System Design : Design an electoral system that is fair and representative, balancing the need for stability with the need for inclusivity.
4. Strengthening Civil Society and Media
- Empower Civil Society : Support the development of civil society organizations that can monitor government actions, promote civic education, and advocate for citizens' rights.
- Independent Media : Encourage the growth of independent media that can provide unbiased information, facilitate public debate, and hold power to account.
5. Security Sector Reform
- Demilitarization : Reduce the role of the military in politics and ensure that security forces are accountable to civilian authorities.
- Professionalization of Security Forces : Train and professionalize police and military forces to respect human rights and operate under the rule of law.
6. Reconciliation and Transitional Justice
- Address Past Abuses : Implement mechanisms for transitional justice, such as truth commissions, to address past human rights violations and provide justice to victims.
- Promote National Reconciliation : Encourage dialogue and reconciliation efforts to heal divisions and prevent future conflict.
7. Economic Stabilization and Development
- Economic Reform : Implement policies that promote economic stability and growth, addressing issues such as corruption, inequality, and unemployment.
- Social Programs : Develop social welfare programs to reduce poverty and provide basic services, helping to build public trust in the new government.
8. International Support and Cooperation
- International Mediation : Involve international organizations and countries that can offer mediation, technical assistance, and monitoring to ensure a peaceful and orderly transition.
- Aid and Investment : Secure international aid and investment to support economic development and build the capacities of democratic institutions.
9. Building Democratic Institutions
- Strong Institutions : Focus on building strong and independent institutions, such as the judiciary, electoral bodies, and anti-corruption agencies, that can uphold democratic principles.
- Capacity Building : Provide training and resources to develop the capacity of government officials, civil society leaders, and political parties to function effectively in a democratic system.
10. Public Education and Civic Engagement
- Civic Education : Promote civic education programs to raise awareness about democratic values, rights, and responsibilities among the populace.
- Encourage Civic Participation : Create opportunities for citizens to participate in public life, such as local councils, town hall meetings, and community organizations.
11. Patience and Long-term Commitment
- Gradual Transition : Recognize that transitioning to democracy is a long-term process that requires patience, sustained effort, and the willingness to adapt strategies as circumstances evolve.
- Avoiding Power Vacuums : Ensure that power vacuums are avoided during the transition, as these can lead to instability or a return to authoritarianism.
Each country’s path from dictatorship to democracy will be unique, shaped by its history, culture, and circumstances. The key is to approach the transition with a commitment to inclusivity, justice, and the rule of law while fostering the development of democratic norms and institutions.
These measures are necessarily gradual and non-violent, because we can see from Syria and many other cases that violent attempts to bring about sudden change often lead to a period of civil war that may be followed by another dictatorship.
In conclusion, dictatorship is at present the second most frequent factor associates with wars in 2024, and the measures set out here offer sensible and non-violent ways of moving away from dictatorships. Of course, these are not the only means available; readers may be aware of other or better ways of progressing, and all suggestions will be gratefully received.
Next, we will look at how to control small ethnic wars and militias.
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