Wednesday, May 29, 2019

The effects of a WTO Brexit Crash out Disaster, collected.

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party is the embodiment of Brexit extremism. They stand for a No Deal Crashout exit from the EU, an exit that leaves us just trading on World Trade Organisation rules.

The Brexiters prefer to call it a WTO Brexit, so I will play along with that here, although it is technically a misnomer, since the EU itself is in the WTO.

The one thing that Parliament has agreed on is that a #WTOBrexit is a no-no. However, so far, the entry qualification for Tory leadership candidates - bar three -  has been to back at least the possibility of a WTOBrexit, on the flimsy pretext that you need to be ready to walk away from any negotiations. This is despite the fact that the dastardly EU negotiators have actually been reading about the decision of Parliament in our glorious free Press, so they know that in negotiation terms, CrashOut is a just a posture.

It is still the case that Farage will be hectoring us via the airwaves with his WTO Brexit, and also that the default position is that we have only 4 months, two of which will be wasted in Tory leadership elections, so we may simply run out of time and be unceremoniously kicked out of the EU on October 31st.

Therefore it is important for all those who care about the welfare of our nation to put out, intensively and repetitively, what the implications are of a #WTOBrexit. This debate will be intense, because the Brexit Party depends on preventing this knowledge from getting out.

The mainstay of their argument will be that "nothing is certain". This is quite true, and is particularly true of their statements, because Brexiteers case is based on a total quasi-religious conviction that the Invisible Hand of the Market alone will guide us to sunny uplands.

Brexit lies in the future, and all of the future is uncertain. Come to think of it, the past is pretty uncertain too, and also the present, but of the three, the future is the most uncertain. Decisions about what we are to do are dependent on making a rational projection and assessment about what we can expect about the future.

There now follows a list of the main impacts of a hard Brexit. Much of the list is taken from a Channel 4 piece, which is excellent, and lasts 14 minutes.


Disentangling two economies that have been merging over 35 years is very difficult and will take years to complete. People who shout "Just do it" from the audience of TV panel shows simply do not understand what they are talking about.

Brexiters say that it will be easy to trade on WTO rules; but the detail suggests it may take 7 years to create the necessary agreements and that the recessionary effects will last for decades.

Chancellor Philip Hammond said in January 2019 that a Brexit would cause temporary economic disruption and a reduction in the size of the economy. He means a recession when he said that, because no economist will ever use the R-word until it has happened.

The French finance Minister at the same conference said that Brexit would be a "catastrophe" for Britain.

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, says a hard Brexit will discourage investors, that GDP may fall by 10%, and unemployment may rise to 7.5%. It would cost us £66 Billion per annum.

Tarriffs will be applied to British exports, e.g. 10% on our exported cars, and 35% on our dairy products.


It is very well known that environmental, human rights and workers rights will be greatly diminished by a Brexit.
Tax avoidance regulations are coming in EU regulations, which may explain the keenness of the rich to withdraw from the EU.
Pet Passports will become fiercely bureaucratic
Transactions such as Data Transfers will take about 15 months to regulate

Imports and Exports
Food:We import 30-40% of our food. WTOBrexit means less diversity and maybe less abundance of food.
35% of UK lamb meat goes to the EU.
The National Union of Farmers admit that the UK will lose export market share.

Medicines We may face shortages of essential medicines, including veterinary medicines, 90% of which come from the EU.
Vaccines primarily come from EU, so there may be Vaccine Shortages.
The NHS will suffer because many staff come from the EU.
Science now depends greatly on international collaboration. Brexit will make this far more difficult.
Security collaboration with EU crime, intelligence and security agencies may fail.
The Insurance Industry faces problems connected with uncertainty.

Ports may see long queues for lorries, and products like fresh vegetables and vaccines may be lost.
There is a possibility that some air flights will be grounded.

Here is a list of major companies that are threatened by Brexit:
Jaguar Land Rover say they will lose about £1.2 million of profits, and may have to move abroad.
Airbus wings may go abroad. (Or they may not).
Nissan and Ford may have to go.

Other companies that may leave:
JP Morganthe NoDeal, WTOBrexit could well mean that conflict returns to Northern Ireland.

And above all,

This is just a quick look at the effects of a #WTOBrexit. It is very clear indeed that economically at least we are going to have to pay for Brexit quite seriously. It is also the case that our influence and standing in the world will diminish.

#WTOBrexit is to be avoided at all costs.

1 comment:

DocRichard said...

Tyre company drops plans to expand

A list from Twitter: Weird how Sony, Honda, Panasonic, Unilever, Barclays, Diageo, HSBC, Bank of America, Nissan, Panasonic, Schaeffler, Airbus, Philips, UBS, Hitachi, Jaguar Land Rover, BMW and Ford are all doing a project fear.