RESOLVING THE WAR IN UKRAINE: MOVING THE IMMOVABLE

Resolving the War in Ukraine:

Moving the immovable 

Negotiations must put an end to the war in Ukraine, but at present negotiations are blocked over which state is to “own” the territories of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk - Ukraine or Russia? Russia will not accept defeat, and Ukraine will not accept having land taken from them by military means. The only way of resolving this deadlock is by giving a choice to the inhabitants of the disputed land.

Victory to whom?

It is nearly three years since Putin foolishly invaded Ukraine, thinking to would be over in three weeks. 

Trump’s peace plan basically hands victory to Putin; analysts fear that rewarding Putin for a gross violation of international law may encourage him or his successor to repeat his “special military operations” in Moldova and the Baltic states.

The EU is preparing to help Ukraine to fight on, which entails more loss of life, more destruction, more expense, more stalemate, and risk of escalation of the war, possibly involving a very severe outcome if Russia begins to lose. 

Peace Terms

Peace negotiations at present are over which state “owns” the Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk: Russia or Ukraine? The stakes are high.

The generally accepted view in the West three years ago was that the decision about peace terms is a matter for the Ukrainian nation, and that it is not up to other nations to decide what should be done. The Ukrainians must decide whether they want to fight on, or whether they must cede territory and give Putin what he wants. 

It is true that the final decision is up to the Ukrainian Government (and to some extent, therefore, the Ukrainian people), but it is also true that non-Ukrainian people should be allowed to think and talk about possible paths out of the present situation, because we are involved both emotionally and financially. It is also true that one prominent non-Ukrainian, Trump, is already very much involved. We have a right to think about  best way to bring this present severe bout of political insanity to an end. The plan put forward here does give Ukrainians a say in the outcome in a way that official plans do not.

Is there any way that the decision between a stalemated war and a Russian victory could be made less harsh? Yes, there is a way. 

Focus shift

Let the disputed territories of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk be declared temporarily independent territories under the protection of the UN or some other neutral authority for an agreed number of years. After a decent interval, say two years at least, a series of well-designed, well conducted referenda is to be conducted, under the control of Swiss, who have long experience in carrying out successful referenda, as opposed to the British, who do not.

People power

The question put before the people would relate to which nation they would prefer to be associated with, and in which way? As an oblast, on the same terms as other Russian or Ukrainian oblasts, or perhaps more as a canton, with a great degree of autonomy? Again, the Swiss have long experience in organising a state composed of peoples  who have different languages and cultures, and moreover, do not have an undue amount of affinity with each other. The Swiss have successfully resolved their political differences, and they have much to offer the world.

The essence of this solution is to let the people decide. This approach takes the decision away from the well-fed politicians whose principles and red lines are irreconcilable and puts it into the hands of the people who are suffering. 

The people just need an end to the destruction and killing. They need peace and years of assistance in rebuilding their towns and infrastructure. After at least a couple of years, when normal life is somewhat re-established, they will be given a series of referenda on how they see their future.

They may want to go with Russia. They may decide they want to stay with Ukraine. They may decide that they want to remain autonomous for more years, to try out evolving systems of greater self government. 

It may take years, or even decades, to decide on a final outcome. There will be a lot of talking to be done, but talking is always better than fighting.

A new paradigm?

This peace settlement may even emerge as a model for other peace settlements, now or in the future, particularly since separatism, the desire of a people to “belong” to a different state to the one they currently “belong” to, is an important factor in many of the wars that are troubling our world.

Clearly, it is well worth our time to discuss this approach. However, it will be very difficult to get the message through to the people who make the decisions. Most politicians are more comfortable in telling people about how important it is for politicians to listen to the people than in actually listening to the people. However, the longest journey has to start with a single step, and for this journey from war to peace in Ukraine, we need concerned people to weigh up in their minds whether the people should be given the power to decide their own future.

 

Dr Richard Lawson 

Churchill

27/1/2026