Here is a highly simplified 10 point explanation of the extremely grey and wet weather Britain has experienced at the beginning of 2026
1. Earth has a greenhouse effect
2. Humans have increased the greenhouse effect, mainly by burning coal, oil and gas
3. Earth is therefore warming
4. Arctic air is warming faster than more southerly regions
5. So the temperature difference between Arctic air and more southerly air is reducing
6. This causes the Northern polar jet stream to weaken and become more wavy
7. The southerly waves of jet stream have conveyed a succession of low pressure systems to the UK
8. The air they bring is warmer (see 3 above) and so can carry more water vapour
9. The pattern in 7 above persists due to a “blocking high” over Scandinavia and Eastern Russia
10. This has resulted in record January rainfall in the UK 17% more than average
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