Yesterday the ever-reliable and estimable John Vidal reported that the Saudis have been overestimating their oil reserves by 40%. The data comes from Wikileaks cables.
Key point: "According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 – global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch point is known as "peak oil"."
More detail in the Oil Drum.
That ties in nicely with a 2007 report, BP PLC has lowered its estimate of the world's proven oil reserves, for the first time in more than a decade, in its annual Statistical Review of World Energy published on Tuesday.
This is not good news for devotees of Julian Simon, the Cornucopian.
Showing posts with label peak oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label peak oil. Show all posts
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Obama signals the end of the Oil Age; critics not pleased
The media critics are trying to pan Obama's speech today on the BP/Deepwater tragedy, probably because the oil megacorporations have told them to. Why would MegaOil not like his speech? (read it in full here, it's not long)
Because he told the plain truth.
For a start he said "oil is a finite resource". Code for "oil supplies will run down quite soon, which means that the price is going to head rapidly upwards. "For decades, we have known the days of cheap and easily accessible oil were numbered. For decades, we have talked and talked about the need to end America's century-long addiction to fossil fuels. And for decades, we have failed to act with the sense of urgency that this challenge requires. Time and again, the path forward has been blocked not only by oil industry lobbyists, but also by a lack of political courage and candour."
That is definitely fighting talk. And he said:
"As we speak, old factories are reopening to produce wind turbines, people are going back to work installing energy-efficient windows, and small businesses are making solar panels. Consumers are buying more efficient cars and trucks, and families are making their homes more energy-efficient."
He is sounding like Caroline Lucas MP. He is talking here about the Green New Deal, a concept that is as deeply rooted in US as in UK forward thinking politics. He makes seven references to clean energy in this short speech.
Let's be clear. There are six excellent reasons to make the transition away from oil and towards clean, renewable energy.
So no wonder the pundits are dissing Obama's White House speech. He is signalling the end of the Oil Age, and the beginning of the Solar Age. The corporate overlords are looking at a change that they have been resisting for more than three decades.
Because he told the plain truth.
For a start he said "oil is a finite resource". Code for "oil supplies will run down quite soon, which means that the price is going to head rapidly upwards. "For decades, we have known the days of cheap and easily accessible oil were numbered. For decades, we have talked and talked about the need to end America's century-long addiction to fossil fuels. And for decades, we have failed to act with the sense of urgency that this challenge requires. Time and again, the path forward has been blocked not only by oil industry lobbyists, but also by a lack of political courage and candour."
That is definitely fighting talk. And he said:
"As we speak, old factories are reopening to produce wind turbines, people are going back to work installing energy-efficient windows, and small businesses are making solar panels. Consumers are buying more efficient cars and trucks, and families are making their homes more energy-efficient."
He is sounding like Caroline Lucas MP. He is talking here about the Green New Deal, a concept that is as deeply rooted in US as in UK forward thinking politics. He makes seven references to clean energy in this short speech.
Let's be clear. There are six excellent reasons to make the transition away from oil and towards clean, renewable energy.
- The BP Oil Spill. Future oil is going to come from these deepwater sites, some in even more hostile waters, near the Malvinas. (So hostile in fact, that the UK Government cannot get round to building the harbour to service that field).
- Man-made climate change.
- Peak Oil.
- Energy security. Obama mentions that the US pays an eye-watering $1billion every day for its oil imports.
- The race for expertise in the field of renewable energy manufacture. And last but not least,
- Energy conservation will create much worthwhile employment, which will help the world to clamber out of recession.
So no wonder the pundits are dissing Obama's White House speech. He is signalling the end of the Oil Age, and the beginning of the Solar Age. The corporate overlords are looking at a change that they have been resisting for more than three decades.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Why can BP only capture part of the oil leak?
I've just spoken to BP UK office about the Deepwater oilspill.
They are now capturing about 15,000 barrels of oil a day, and flaring (idiots) 16,000,000 cu ft of gas. Oil is leaking around the riser pipe - they do not know how much, but they are capturing maybe 30-50% of the leak.
The next step is to activate a second riser (the one that was used in the failed attempt to top-kill the leak) and capture yet more of the oil.
The limiting factor is the capacity of the ship at the surface to process the oil, i.e. separate the oil from the gas. It has 2 processors, but there are not that many mobile processors around.
If they had more processors, they would be able to increase the flow.
Which takes us back to the central failure of unpreparedness: If (and it is a big if) deep water drilling continues, there has to be rescue technology at hand ready to deal with a blow out.
There is a BP film here which gives a bit of insight on what is going on. The film shows calm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Extreme weather would move the surface ship, and break the riser pipe all over again.
If this blowout had happened in the planned oil fields near the Malvinas, this kind of operation would be 100x more difficult, if not impossible, because of the mad weather they get there 24/7.
They are now capturing about 15,000 barrels of oil a day, and flaring (idiots) 16,000,000 cu ft of gas. Oil is leaking around the riser pipe - they do not know how much, but they are capturing maybe 30-50% of the leak.
The next step is to activate a second riser (the one that was used in the failed attempt to top-kill the leak) and capture yet more of the oil.
The limiting factor is the capacity of the ship at the surface to process the oil, i.e. separate the oil from the gas. It has 2 processors, but there are not that many mobile processors around.
If they had more processors, they would be able to increase the flow.
Which takes us back to the central failure of unpreparedness: If (and it is a big if) deep water drilling continues, there has to be rescue technology at hand ready to deal with a blow out.
There is a BP film here which gives a bit of insight on what is going on. The film shows calm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Extreme weather would move the surface ship, and break the riser pipe all over again.
If this blowout had happened in the planned oil fields near the Malvinas, this kind of operation would be 100x more difficult, if not impossible, because of the mad weather they get there 24/7.
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