Sunday, October 05, 2008

Two Predictions: Mandelson is here to Mend Mangled Markets

I make predictions today. This is a highly risky strategy, but risk is inherent in all human activity, and predictions are part of the scientific method.

First prediction: The Bush-Paulson TARP will not stabilise the world markets.
It is an attempt to suck bad debt out of Wall St, but is a mere drop in the ocean. The world economy is adrift in a sea of debt: The world's 192 countries owe about $54trillion. Only about 4 countries have no debt. The external debt of the USA is about $14 trillion,($42k per capita) with the UK second at $11.5 trillion (but a swinging $190k per capita, topped only by Ireland at $424k per capita, the "Democratic" Republic of Congo, and Monaco, which is a tax haven).
The effect of the Bush Bailout will be to stabilise Wall St. for a time (weeks or months), but this stabilisation will have unintended consequences, as it will attract funds from other world stock-markets, just as the Irish Govternment's guarantee for Irish banks has sucked deposits out of other European banks. Unilateral action will bring about huge movements of money around the world, which I propose should have a new technical term: "sloshing".

Just as a ship in a storm with water in its hold is threatened with capsize by the sloshing, so also will the ship of the world's financial economy. Britain will react to the flight of stock money to New York by trying to mount its own bail out.

Which brings me to my second prediction. Peter Mandelson will be given the task of pushing through Britain's bail out of the City. Peter is going to be our Paulson. He has the manipulative power and the propaganda skills needed to shout down the Nancy Pelosi-type opposition that will emerge as the proposal is waved in front of Parliament (if it does get to be so waved: it is more the British way to grant the money to the City, and graciously inform the zombies on the green leather benches that the deed is done).


Jannie Funster said...

I guess the best you can do is tend your own garden, be kinder than you have to and write another song!!

Jannie (found you via the Songwriting tag on Blogger.)

DocRichard said...

"Be kinder than you have to be"
's a fine line for the memory

My fist ever song, when I was about 16, went like this:

"By the itching of my thumbs
something nasty this way comes.
is it man or is it beast?
Is it flesh or is it ghost?

I hear the politician come,
He's looking for another run" (x2)

Now news is just the news of war,
to tell us what we knew before,
that mankind hates his brother man
and tries to kill him when he can

I hear the politician come,
He's looking for another run" (x2)