Friday, April 22, 2016

Brexiteers have lost the economic argument

The Brexiteers have lost the economic argument of authorities.

So far, the following have concluded that the UK (or indeed the world) would be worse off economically if we left the EU:

  1. IMF
  2. World Bank
  3. OECD
  4. Bank of England
  5. Monetary Policy Committee
  6. Treasury
  7. IFS
Other institutions and people
  1. President Obama
  2. Prime Minister of New Zealand (also of Australia)
  3. Japanese PM
Now of course each and every one of these reports from institutions and individuals is met with a barrage of objections from the Two Nigels (Farrage and Lawson), BoJo and Govey etc, but taken as a whole, the collective authority of all these authorities totally outweighs the emotional intensity of the Brexiteers. In fact the pressure to leave is maintained only by day-by-day pressure from the right wing press - Times, Telegraph, Mail, Express, and Sun, who outnumber neutral and pro-EU newspapers by 3 to 1. If the distribution of press opinion were more normal, the Brexiteers would be just a tiny minority.

We can safely conclude from all this that the Brexiteers have lost the economic argument.

This leaves the migration argument. And it is far from clear that leaving the EU would actually reduce migration.

Although if we do vote for Brexit, the subsequent UK economic recession probably would reduce immigration.

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