Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Could confusion based on Noel Edmonds' Deal or No Deal sink Britain as a world power?

Yet another letter to my MP

Dear John Penrose,

It is increasingly clear that it will be necessary to hold a second referendum on Brexit in order to extract the nation from the impasse that has developed.

I  ask you to make very sure that the words "No Deal" do not appear in the referendum voting form. Not just because No Deal would be an ill-considered and reckless course of action, but also because many voters are  confused about what No Deal means. In the well-known Noel Edmonds TV show, No Deal means that things play on and the contestant hopes to gain more money. It is possible that this idea will influence a significant number of voters. There is evidence for this in a recent YouGov poll, where the percentage preferences in a second referendum, excluding Don't Knows, are as follows:

If choice is Remain v May’s deal: Remain wins 62-38.

If choice is Remain v No-Deal: Remain wins 57-43

In a 3-way choice:
Remain 54
leaving with No Deal 28
leaving with May’s deal 18

Anecdotal also suggests that misunderstanding about what No Deal means is common.

It is clear from this that while there is a robust preference for Remain, No Deal wins over the negotiated option. People do not appreciate the danger of No Deal. Maybe they are following the maxim "No Deal is better than a Bad Deal". Whatever the reason, if  No Deal appears on the voting slip, we could make a wrong decision that would impact on the future stability of our nation on the basis of a sorry misunderstanding.

I hope this helps

Yours sincerely,

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