Friday, June 05, 2009

Prediction: UK Green team of 6 MEPs?

The Predict website does exactly what it says on the tin: It predicts the '09 Euroelection result. Their methodology is explained on this link.
Hat tip to the authors of the report.

Their forecast for the United Kingdom is as follows: "The opposition Conservative Party is running well ahead of the governing Labour Party in the polls. However, the Labour Party did extremely badly in the European elections in 2004 and the electoral system (regional districts with d’Hondt) should mean that Labour should not lose as many seats as some people are predicting. The Eurosceptic UK Independence Party (UKIP) could come third overall, but is unlikely to win as many seats as it did in 2004. Meanwhile, the Greens could gain several new seats, as many former Labour voters switch their support. Our model currently predicts that the extreme right British National Party is unlikely to win a seat, although they could win 1 or more seats if support for UKIP collapses in certain regions.

They predict gains of 4 MEPs for Greens, ( of 6), SNP 1 gain, (total 3), and all the other parties losing seats: Labour -4 (15) Con -3 (24) Ukip -2(10) LibDem -2 (10)

I have no idea about the reliability of this website, but it has a foreword by the EuroParliament President, so it is probably not run by total crackpots.

Anyway, it puts a happy thought in our heads to carry us through to Sunday evening; though if the results are worse than predicted, we may have to put up with disappointment.
Health Warning:
Don't Blame Me if they have got it wrong.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Oh dear